Matthew Leffler (kymatt19) wrote,
Matthew Leffler

VP and the General Election

So just a quick thought ... I think if I were Obama I'd try to get Gen. Wesley Clark as my vice-president. I wouldnt pick Hillary and if I was Hillary I wouldn't accept if offered. Allows her to win in 2012 if he loses, lets face it Hillary isn't a copilot kinda girl and I want a woman president not a woman vice-president.

Gen. Clark though is a Clinton backer which is good. He has all the miltary and experience that Obama completely lacks and I think that would be a possitive turn on for conservatives. Obama having no military background going against a former POW would be smart to have the former NATO commander standing behind him.

As for the pundits that say the VP doesn't matter ... then why are all of you tlaking about it? Obviously they do have some effect on the ticket.

Regarding the general my arrogant know it all fashion I'll say this....

OHIO, FLORIDA, TEXAS !!!! We need these. 

In a quick look at all the elections in the past one hundred years.  Here are some statistics I pulled together from electoral maps.

Total Elected in the past 100 years = 25

Texas Ohio Florida go for PresidentsElectionsPercent WON
President won 0 00%
President won 1 state520%
President won at least 2 states2080%
President won all 3 states1872%* they dont lose
likelyhood of winning.  Just 72% of
the time these states always
picked the winner.  Still 80% of 

I'm just saying CA, PA, NJ, IL while these states are big they basically go with the whole (i.e. Reagan 1984 when only MN and DC supported Mondale) or they go for the democratic candidate.  Same can be said about WY and the plain states.  These are not swing states and whoever the nominee is they generally go along party lines.  
But Ohio has gone against the winner only ONCE.  You won Ohio you were elected 96% of the time
Texas has gone against the winner only FIVE TIMES.
Florida has gone against the winner only FIVE TIMES.

Current polling data suggests this election cycle will:
OHIO344%43%Too Close

  So based on these swing states and my table above Obama needs to work harder to get Ohio and then he'll have a 20% chance of winning.  If he can gain 11 points in either FL or TX he'll have an 80% chance.  


To further bore with statistics Kentucky, my state has been right 21/25 times...isnt that important?  No ... we have 8 electoral votes.  Who cares.  Just like I don't care about Kansas or Indiana or Tennesse.  Those big swing states above make up a total of 30% of the electoral college.  Take into account .... 

1976 - Gerald Ford won the most states.  Jimmy Carter won the election and he won OH, FL and TX.

So its great that Obama won the most states in the primarily but it doesn't mean anything.  Most of his states were Republician states anyhow.  

I'm just saying that while he is close in Ohio he did lose it in the primary.  McCain has healthy big leads in Texas and Florida which Obama also lost in the primaries.   Texas is the least "swinging" big swing state it hasn't gone for a Democrat since 1976 so that is in McCain's favor.

I look at the numbers on CNN's website and they seem to focus on the national poll numbers.  Of course thats great if we had one direct election ....   We don't have a national general election for president so thats stupid.  We have 50 seperate elections on the same day for electors.  If national polls or if national elections were important then the Supreme Court wouldn't have allowed Bush to win in 00.  It annoys me when journalist dumb down elections to simple national polls for quicker sound bites ... and then I have to sit in front of a person who rambles that Obama is gonna win based on what we know today in national polls.  Honestly I've had to sit there in the past several weeks and look at people and I want to waste my whole night providing an education to them?  I just roll my eyes argue for 5 minutes, get a drink, make a bet with them and tell Chris they are too stupid to hang out with.  :-)  No names...since there are so many.

Trivia: Kennedy is the only person to win without carrying Ohio.  He did it because he carried TX.

So those are my thoughts....lets see how accurate I am in November.



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